Archive for December, 2006

Semiconductor sales to reach $248.8 bln in 2006

Unit sales of cell phones are expected to increase by more than 20% in 2006 to more than 1 bln units. With an average semiconductor content of $41 per unit, the cell phone market is now the second-largest consumer of semiconductors, after personal compute

There’s Still Gold In That Copper

Topical article on ADSL2+ and VDSL

Japan: 7 Million Fiber Customers

And 10Tb/s backbonez for the warez?

Level3 and Akamai - The Investment Paradox

Level3 (LVLT) tries very hard to appear hip with the Web 2.0 vibe, and today’s WSJ article cites content distribution (namely video) as the reason for a resurgence of investor interest in carriers. Simultaneously, investors continue to flood liquidity into content delivery networks (CDNs) like Akamai (AKAM), trumpeting them as key enablers of the Web 2.0 content rage. It is impossible for both to be right, as each business is designed to eliminate the need for the other.

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Others Will Feel Vitesse Semiconductors Pain

The Vitesse (VTSS.PK) accounting debacle announced yesterday will impact other companies in the components market. My gut feeling is that other non-commodity component companies are engaging in this behavior right now. The old adage applies- if you see one roach, there are a thousand more.

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Stop Using Internet Explorer 6.0


Checking stats this afternoon I see that for the first time less than 50% of you are using Internet Explorer 6.0. 32% of you use Firefox, and 5% use Safari (Apple Users). Those of you still using Internet Explorer 6.0 really should upgrade to 7.0, something that can be done by running the Windows Update function. Or you can download it directly here. It is a good product. Those of you more technically inclined should download and install Firefox, which is a fantastic product and one I recommend highly.

You’ll have a better experience and more secure experience on this site as well as others if you upgrade.

Vitesse Announces Result of Investigation

Vitesse LogoVitesse (VTSS.PK) announced the results of the review by the Board of Directors into stock option backdating and revenue recognition issues. I found the release lacking in new information, and I expected to see more information about the implication of several disclosures.

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Net Neutrality War Heating Up

It’s pretty clear that the AT&T (T ) and Bellsouth (BLS) merger has turned into a proxy war over Net Neutrality, with Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) spearheading the effort in a naked attempt to keep their distribution costs near zero. Correspondingly, Washington bloodsuckers lobbyists on both sides are gearing up.
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Upcoming Events Q1 2007

I’ll be attending the following upcoming events.

  • OFC/NFOEC 2007 - I’m specifically interested in meeting with module companies in the interest of refreshing my industry perspective. I’ll also be presenting during the Market Watch session “Wall St. Perspectives” on Thursday March 29th. Come by if you’ve been waiting to heckle me in person.
  • CES 2007 - Yes it is a huge grope-fest of a conference but I’ve found strolling the exhibits to be a useful way to kindle ideas.

As always, any meetings and discussions don’t result in anything in this blog without mutual consent and mutual review. You receive free independent editorial coverage with a targeted audience of 10k readers and I learn something new. Win-Win.

Contact me here.

I’ll also be in Santa Barbara for a weekend of riding during the 2007 Tour of California, but that’s strictly pleasure.

Back To The Future

Bill Koss posts some entertaining anecdotes on the recent rumblings regarding “Booming Optical Growth

I’m paraphrasing the article - read it in full here. It’s more serious, I’m just grabbing the funny bits.

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Tennenbaum and Vitesse

The WSJ profiles Tennenbaum Capital Partners in a Page One article today ($$$ Link to WSJ). I harbor no illusions about the risk inherent in my Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS.pk) investment. The worst case scenario for the company is a liquidity crunch, which would leave it in the hands of creditors. The creditor most likely to benefit is Tennenbaum, and their track record should rightfully concern Vitesse investors.

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Peer to Peer - The Stowaway Traffic

Source: Cachelogic

Peer to Peer (P2P) traffic is the stowaway traffic of the net. It is latency and QoS insensitive and happy to fill broadband unused capacity. The big growth rate on the above chart gives P2P the illusion of being important- The reality is it is just being efficient.

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Vitesse - Chapman Files Updated 13D

Chapman

Robert Chapman filed another colorful 13D yesterday which disclosed a reduction in the number of Vitesse (VTSS.pk) shares he controls (7.3% to 6.2%). This time, it is his trading activity, not his prose, that is most interesting.

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AT&T - “You Will” but They Didn’t

Below is a montage of AT&T (T ) ads circa 1993.

It isn’t clear whether AT&T actually expected to deliver these innovations. They certainly were beat to market by Cable with the cable modem, and I can’t think of a single application innovation out of the company in the last 16 years.
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