Vitesse provided a “State of the Company” update, most likely it’s last ad-hoc quarterly call as audited results are expected to be made available by next quarter. We analyze their core business trends, including discussions about Chinese GE-PON, an update on EDC/SFP+ 10GbE, and the impact of removing distributor incentives. While Vitesse is cheap when compared to peers the risk of an unanticipated short-term revenue decline poses an unseen risk.
In a trend I expect to snowball, PMC-Sierra (PMCS) announced they will begin using sell-through accounting as opposed to sell-in accounting with distributors. This is a trend which traces it’s origins back to the accounting issues at Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS.PK). (see “The Trickle Down Economics of Channel Stuffing“)
I am at a complete loss to explain the markets reaction to Nu Horizons’s (NUHC) most recent quarterly results. People appear content to follow the herd for now, but the problem with being surrounded by warm bodies is it makes a quick escape impossible.
AMCC (AMCC) pre-announced a major shortfall in revenue for the March quarter and revised guidance for June down even further. The magnitude of the revenue decline is breathtaking – $76M in Dec ’06 to $70M in Mar ’07 to a projected $60M in June ’07. Analysts were projecting around $76M in June ’07 revenue.
Yesterday the SEC issued a subpoena to Nu Horizons (NUHC) for documents related to business with Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS.pk). The motive for the subpoena is not public but I suspect it is to understand the mechanics of the transactions between the two companies that enabled Vitesse to engage in bad financial behavior.
My only hope for this call was that I would not be surprised. In the absence of any information from the company since November 6 2006, I discovered my mind is capable of generating some frightening scenarios. The last thing I wanted to see was one of those scenarios realized. None were.
The Vitesse (VTSS.PK) accounting debacle announced yesterday will impact other companies in the components market. My gut feeling is that other non-commodity component companies are engaging in this behavior right now. The old adage applies- if you see one roach, there are a thousand more.
All of the correlation between Nu Horizons and its competitors and suppliers has broken down. “This time is different” can be the four most expensive words an investor can use.