The latest Linley Group report on Networking Silicon Market Share provides a breakout of PON FTTH silicon market share for the second year running.. It includes both market size and market share information for all Networking markets, including PON. The key takeaway is that Linley believes the market grew only 20% in dollar size, though I estimate deployments grew worldwide over 50% year over year. Such is life as a semiconductor vendor.
They shared the following data with me.
Viewed in the context of last week’s CES, the iPhone’s greatest impact should be felt by incumbents. Why? The iPhone has enlightened consumers to the fact that existing mobile phone interfaces suck. But people are mistaken if they think a $599 iPhone is going to sell 10M units in 2008. It will take a $299 iPhone 2.0 to make this happen.
The big deal isn’t the iPhone itself, which is what the mainstream investment, gadget and tech media is focusing on. It’s the way that it will fundamentally challenge how carriers have coupled services with connectivity with a hardware distribution monopoly.
FSAN has completed their first GPON interoperability testing. Interoperability of GPON systems is important, since the ITU standard ultimately should yield systems that interface more smoothly than the loosely defined GE-PON specification.
From Telephony Online:
In a research note issued this morning, UBS analyst Nikos Theodosopoulos said Verizon (VZ) is likely to pick Alcatel (ALA), Motorola (MOT) and Tellabs (TLAB) as its GPON suppliers in a twist on the carrier’s traditional dual-sourcing practices.
Typically the Bells would select two vendors, with a 70:30 deployment split between the two over the life of the contract. Who got the 70 was usually determined by technology and pricing in the early stages of the contract, establishing relative incumbency for one supplier.
This is part II in a continuing series. Part I can be found here.
Technology Selection â€“ GE-PON vs. G-PON
Chinese carriers will be forced to select between two competing standards for Passive Optical Networks (PON) for Fiber to the Home (FTTH) Deployments.
This weeks Barrons has a short article ($$$ link) on Tivo (TIVO) that highlights the acquisition option as well as the need to pursue Cablecos for licensing deals. No new analysis beyond what I’ve written over the last few days, but the article is getting media attention so I thought an excerpt was in order.
With a name thatâ€™s become a verb, plus great software, TiVo could be acquisition bait. But its share of DVRs is on course to be eclipsed this year by Scientific-Atlanta (SFA) and Motorola (MOT), the two largest cable set-top makers.
Most of its subscribers come from a deal with DirecTV (DTV), the satellite operator, which pays TiVo $1.15 a subscriber, and accounts for nearly 70% of TiVo’s users and 20% of its revenue. DirecTV last week extended the deal to 2010. It won’t market TiVo’s service, but the deal prevents TiVo from losing existing customers.
Last week’s jury verdict may boost TiVo’s chances to sign up cable operators other than Comcast (CMCSA), with which it already has a deal. Cable guys will find it difficult to work around TiVo’s patents, says Terence Clark, a lawyer who heads the national intellectual property practice at Greenberg Traurig. That could force Time Warner Cable and Cablevision (CVC) into licensing deals.
But the case doesn’t solve TiVo’s most pressing long-term problem. It still has a long road ahead as it tries to win over cable operators with its patent claims.
A buyout may in fact be the best exit strategy for TiVo. In the meantime, selling on Thursday’s pop in TiVo shares may be the best exit for investors. What lies ahead are many years of knocking on cable operators doors, a long, long story with no fast-forward button in sight.
Hat Tip – Seeking Alpha
This news caught us by surprise. Motorola has invested in Broadlight, a supplier of silicon for GPON equipment. Our analysis of the GPON market (in conjunction with an extensive look at Passave) reached the following conclusions.
Tellabs – Broadlight
Optical Solutions (Now Calix) – In House
Alcatel – Freescale
Motorola (Quantum Bridge) – BPON in house, hiring an ASIC team for GPON
Hitachi – Unknown
Unclear what this means to the ASIC team in Andover, MA and in PA.
Regardless, we remain very negative on GPON as an opportunity for silicon PON MAC vendors and negative on GPON as a widely adopted technology over the next several years.