I haven’t been shy about my prediction that GE-PON would trump GPON deployments and so far I’ve been right. The dominance of GE-PON continues, with large deployments planned or underway throughout Asia. Verizon (VZ) is the only carrier deploying BPON/GPON in size though some activity is promised in Europe. We shall see.
Let’s take a quick look at the state of the photon.
I know two American engineers who have relocated to China to lead optical module design teams at Chinese equipment companies. They live and work in China for Chinese companies, using their skills to build custom modules – skills no longer in demand from their American Tier-1 telecom equipment employers.
This is part IV in a continuing series. Part III can be found here.
Enter the Dragon
China Telecom (CHA) recently assembled a very quiet, closed door session of suppliers in order to orchestrate implementation of several extensions to the IEEE 803.3ah GE-PON standard. This event has gone totally unreported in the press. Obviously, knowing which companies attended would be valuable- this is what I have been able to conclude.
PMC-Sierra Inc. (PMCS) announced at the close today that they are acquiring Passave, a company we have – written – about – extensively, for $300M in stock. In fact, I predicted PMC-Sierra would enter this business through acquisition, though I thought Teknovus would be the better path.
Good discussion on Huawei-3COM in this weeks Barron’s.
This week Huawei announced their 2005 bookings were $8.2BB. Most people have misinterpreted this number to be revenue- that figure has yet to be announced. What hasn’t happened is an independent audit of any of these numbers. That’s because Huawei views secrecy, including lack of independent accounting, as a strategic competitive advantage.
Based on this article, other information, as well as personal experience, here’s my take on what probably (READ: SPECULATION) happened. Anyone who has worked for a semiconductor company and developed silicon based on a new standard won’t find anything remarkable in my analysis. You’ve seen this movie before and you already know how it ends.