VTSS.PK
Vitesse Q208
Vitesse provided a “State of the Company” update, most likely it’s last ad-hoc quarterly call as audited results are expected to be made available by next quarter. We analyze their core business trends, including discussions about Chinese GE-PON, an update on EDC/SFP+ 10GbE, and the impact of removing distributor incentives. While Vitesse is cheap when compared to peers the risk of an unanticipated short-term revenue decline poses an unseen risk.
Just off the Vitesse Q208 Investor Conf Call. Not sure what kind of logic goes into an investor asking a CEO why he doesn’t resign - such questions should be addressed to the Board, not the CEO. If he is so burnt up there is a market for his shares and he should sell them.
The incident is positive in a way: I have found that many small-cap companies simply don’t take calls from anyone they don’t know. The fact that VTSS takes calls from all in the queue is a sign of openness. Other companies, including IKAN and others (yes I keep a record) practice what I call “Queue Management”, taking calls only from people in the queue they know to be friendly.
So, to the investor who asked the question - at least recognize the fact you were allowed to have a voice in the first place. Most companies wouldn’t have allowed you even that. And next time just take your loss and don’t waste my time.
10GbE and SFP+ - This Time It’s Different
One of our more popular theme pieces (see “Five Misconceptions About the 10G Optical Market“) examined the state of the 10GbE market and sought to identify the gaps between market perception and reality. It’s time to publish an update with the facts we have collected and opinions we’ve formed since then.
Continue reading
Google’s Secret 10GbE Switch
It is our opinion that Google (GOOG) has designed and deployed home-grown 10GbE switches as part of a secret internal initiative that was launched when it realized commercial options couldn’t meet the cost and power consumption targets required for their data centers.
This decision by Google, while small in terms of units purchased, is enormous in terms of the disruptive impact it should have on 10GbE switching equipment providers and their component supply chains. It is as if a MACHO just arrived in the Enterprise networking business and the orbits of the existing satellites have begun to shift without observers knowing why - until now.
LightReading Ethernet Conference Notes
This is a collection of notes and observations gathered during the LightReading Ethernet Conference that didn’t merit a standalone article. Unless noted, these conclusions were from conversations I had while at the conference, and not the opinions of presenters.
Vitesse Sells Storage
After dropping hints in an earlier conference call (see Vitesse Q207 Conference Call Notes) Vitesse announced the sale of a portion of their storage products to Maxim (MXIM). The $63M transaction has a provision for an additional $12M if certain milestones are hit. The company will use the proceeds from Maxim and $30M in new convertible debt to repay the junk debt to Tennenbaum Capital. (see Tennenbaum and Vitesse).
Three months ago I expected the sale of the entire storage unit to fetch 3.5x revenue. Subsequent research and discussions led me to believe this estimate was inaccurate, something reflected in comments I made (see here).
MRV Communications- Vitesse Redux?
The consolidation of MRV (MRVC) & Fiberxon is a healthy force for the industry but one made at the near term expense of shareholders (see MRV, Luminent, and Fiberxon). The rest of the optical component industry will see the benefits of consolidation, but MRV shareholders have lost nearly 30% of their investment since the merger was approved.
The Madness of the Carrier Chipset Market
There is an excellent editorial today by Lee Goldberg that explores the lack of new R&D in SONET/SDH and PDH chip sets. While I don’t agree with the conclusion it is a worthy topic of exploration and he highlights something missed by the mainstream tech media.
The networking industry may be about to hit a hidden speed bump as the number of semiconductor companies actively involved with developing products to support SONET/SDH, PDH, and other TDM-based technologies can now be counted on one hand.
Lee thinks this is a big problem. This is not a problem at all. It is the only logical solution to the madness of the past 6 years.
PMC-Sierra Adjusts Channel Accounting
In a trend I expect to snowball, PMC-Sierra (PMCS) announced they will begin using sell-through accounting as opposed to sell-in accounting with distributors. This is a trend which traces it’s origins back to the accounting issues at Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS.PK). (see “The Trickle Down Economics of Channel Stuffing“)
AMCC - Further Down the Spiral
AMCC (AMCC) held a conference call last Friday to review preliminary FQ108 results. The company indicated in April that FQ108 would be $60M down from $70M in the previous quarter (see “AMCC Kicks the Distribution Habit“). The final tally now puts it closer to $50M, a quarter over quarter decline of nearly 30%. This is worthy of detailed examination.
MRV, Luminent, and Fiberxon
MRV (MRVC) completed a merger with component maker Fiberxon without having audited financials and released an 8-K outlining events that do not point towards rapid resolution. In my personal opinion, the company has willingly placed itself in a situation where they face imminent delisting, violation of Bond covenants, and virtually certain attack from shareholder lawsuits and activists. It defies explanation.
Vitesse Q207 Conference Call Notes
Vitesse (VTSS.pk) delivered the required fiscal discipline in Q207. While running a super-tight ship does not come without downsides, at this point I believe the benefits outweigh the drawbacks.
My biggest concerns going into the call were inventory and cash management, and the company executed well in these areas in the face of declining shipments.
Nu Horizons - Follow the Herd
I am at a complete loss to explain the markets reaction to Nu Horizons’s (NUHC) most recent quarterly results. People appear content to follow the herd for now, but the problem with being surrounded by warm bodies is it makes a quick escape impossible.
SEC Subpoenas Nu Horizons
Yesterday the SEC issued a subpoena to Nu Horizons (NUHC) for documents related to business with Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS.pk). The motive for the subpoena is not public but I suspect it is to understand the mechanics of the transactions between the two companies that enabled Vitesse to engage in bad financial behavior.
Vitesse Q107 Conference Call Notes
My only hope for this call was that I would not be surprised. In the absence of any information from the company since November 6 2006, I discovered my mind is capable of generating some frightening scenarios. The last thing I wanted to see was one of those scenarios realized. None were.
Finisar FQ307 Earnings Commentary
Finisar (FNSR) reported revenue Monday evening of $107.5M. No written transcript of the call is available, though a replay is and the company overview was updated. I thought there were three notable announcements.
Why JDSU Bought Picolight
JDSU (JDSU) announced that they are acquiring Picolight, a maker of VCSEL based optical transceivers. This is yet another example of healthy consolidation in the optical components business, which ultimately will lead to a better business environment for all- except for the customers like Cisco that exploit the oversupply situation. And Cisco is the likely reason JDSU bought Picolight in the first place.
Others Will Feel Vitesse Semiconductors Pain
The Vitesse (VTSS.PK) accounting debacle announced yesterday will impact other companies in the components market. My gut feeling is that other non-commodity component companies are engaging in this behavior right now. The old adage applies- if you see one roach, there are a thousand more.
Vitesse Announces Result of Investigation
Vitesse (VTSS.PK) announced the results of the review by the Board of Directors into stock option backdating and revenue recognition issues. I found the release lacking in new information, and I expected to see more information about the implication of several disclosures.
Tennenbaum and Vitesse
The WSJ profiles Tennenbaum Capital Partners in a Page One article today ($$$ Link to WSJ). I harbor no illusions about the risk inherent in my Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS.pk) investment. The worst case scenario for the company is a liquidity crunch, which would leave it in the hands of creditors. The creditor most likely to benefit is Tennenbaum, and their track record should rightfully concern Vitesse investors.
