Good analysis as usual.

Could the ipod be just a flash in the pan? Apple stuff seems well done, but as you point out they will have a hard time addressing all markets / platforms. What would be the best way for them to extend into more areas? Acquisitions? Partnerships? Opening their standards?

Oh, also, I am not sure that Microsoft is the #1 smart phone platform, I think worldwide Symbian is larger? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone

You can tell when an article is intended to create more heat than light when it describes the lack of profitability in Apple’s online music sales–something that Apple itself has openly acknowledged and has been a subject of discussion for years–as a “dirty little secret.” Either that, or the author of this piece hasn’t been paying attention to either the industry or the technology. Whatever the answer might be, the readers (and, more importantly, investors) are equally disserved.

Turning to the “analysis,” the author makes a series of statements of dubious import. For example, he states that Microsoft will give away a billion dollars or so worth of music to get users to switch — allowing them to move their song libraries to an as yet unseen alternative to iTunes and the iPod. I suppose it’s believable, but why does it matter? Consumer surveys consistently show that people use the iPod and iTunes because of its ease of use, simplicity, and compatibility with the most popular music player in the world. Do some stay in the iTunes/iPod ecosystem because they cannot afford to walk away from a big music investment? Unlikely, because the same surveys show that few iTunes/iPod users have a big investment in iTunes Music Store Purchases. Of course, some might — but the author provides not a shred of evidence to back that up. Couple that with the fact that most iPod users’ libraries are filled mainly with their own ripped CDs suggest something that the author has pointedly overlooked — that, perhaps, iTunes/iPod users like Apple’s products and services. They just work. Microsoft’s plan to execute a billion-dollar “try me” bribe, then, will only be as good as the alternative it proposes. If history is any guide, to say that Microsoft’s offering will be underwhelming is, in fact, an understatement. And as far as execution is concerned, look at the current boondoggle surrounding Microsoft’s flagship offerings: Office and Windows. Heads are rolling left and right, delays mount upon other delays. As a careful investor, I’d have to wait this one out.

Frankly, this “article” rests, ultimately, on the dubious presumption that Apple cannot scale the iPod/iTunes service across platforms, and, as a corrollary, that Microsoft can leverage an as-yet-untested ability to connect with a wide variety of platforms. Few of the Microsoft-connected platforms, by the way, work very well with media … just compare reviews of Apple’s media PCs vs. Windows media PCs. As for the latter, the majority of reviewer bemoan that they can barely get them to work, let alone reliably. Of course, Apple has the advantage of controlling the “universe” in which its media offerings can live — blending hardware and software that doesn’t have to live in the wilds of technology where Microsoft products must somehow co-exist. The Tower of Babel world of Windows-linked technology is about to get more complicated, too. Microsoft’s Vista, if it ever comes out, looks to have hardware requirements at least a generation beyond what most businesses and consumers have on their desktops — specs that would be overkill for Linux and even Mac OS X. We’re in the middle of a sea change, and betting on the lumbering Microsoft to kill the iPod/iTunes success story seems like a fool’s errand.

It would great if Microsoft, with all of its money and personnel, would try something original. It seems to have this habit of watching from the sidelines to see what works and then flooding the market with an oftentimes clumsy, but predatorily priced, alternative. And oftentimes, like the X-Box, it can’t seem to find a way to make money. I’d be more inclined to bet on Microsoft if the company got its ship in order first — with Vista and Office — before taking the wheel on a specutive multimedia venture.

With Apple apparently delayed in its next iPod offering, the next six to eight months ought to be interesting, at least.

Since the iPod already works with Windows, Mac and Linux, it’s hard to claim that Microsoft will have an advantage. And it’s sad that the author is so poorly informed as to the facts.

At the moment, this is just typical Microsoft vaporware, trying to drag down sales of the iPod without actually having anything to sell yet themselves. When they actually put out a product, then you can test it and declare it this week’s “iPod killer,” at least until the first set of sales figures come out.

And when it flops, and Microsoft starts spreading rumors about their next iPod killer, you’ll drool all over that, too. Whatever happened to professional journalism?

Mr. Bertoni and Mr. Coles, i think the discussion is better served if you dissect the ideas rather than make personal attacks. It detracts from your arguments. In general, this is a great site.

That said, I agree that Microsoft is likely to miss the mark, again. As an occassional user of MS Media Center, I am amazed that Mister Softee continues to struggle with basic user interface ease of use and has a terrible look-and-feel. They’ve sunk untold millions and time into development and this is what they have to show for it?

Microsoft has made a living out of being a not-so-fast follower, but it also has a long list of flops: WebTV, Windows CE (‘Wince’), Windows ME and ‘Bob’ come to mind.

The Engadget photos of the MSFT ‘ipod’ device also reflect Microsoft’s Soviet-era design sensibilities. Drab, drab, drab. MSFT can perhaps make it costless at the music file level to switch, but you still have to buy a new player — hard to see a compelling reason to change at this point (i am one of the few Creative flash music player owners, BTW). If they produce an innovative design and make it really seamless to use, then let’s talk about it.

I think Apple actually has a golden opportunity to leverage its iPod success into other markets, particularly its long-rumored entry into the cell phone market (besides the ill-conceived ROKR). The cell phone market is increasingly playing to Apple’s innate strengths: industrial design, multimedia and ease-of-use. Since the unit opportunity is between 900 million and a billion phones this year, I wonder what is taking them so long?

Spelling and punctuating correctly would enhance readability and credibility. Its/it’s, “i before e except after c”, the basics.