More Signal. Less Noise.
Everyone agrees fixed line is a dying, low margin business. Yet Cablecos like Comcast (CMCSA), Cablevision (CVC), Shaw (SJR), and Time Warner (TWX) are feverishly trying to capture market share in this business. Why?
Continue reading ‘Someone Tell the Cablecos Fixed Line is Dead’
I’ve pulled the plug on Tivo (TIVO) after three years of great service. With my recent FiOS TV subscription, I needed HD capability and I cannot justify paying $800 for hardware I get for free from Verizon (VZ). I just wish I had tried to cancel my Tivo service earlier as they offered to cut the per month fee in half if I stayed. That’s a bad leading indicator for the health of this company.
Akamai (AKAM) was an exception in my portfolio. I typically avoid high P/E high market cap companies, but Akamai had a unique and dominant position in the marketplace that I felt people overlooked. But I’ve synthetically hedged out Akamai holdings since September 22.
I’m not off to a great start with Verizon FiOS TV. Installer pulled a no show at my home this morning. No call, no warning, nothing. I phoned in and spoke to the same lady who took my order. Her explanation? Their systems ‘changed’ and my order was ‘lost’.
Unbelievable. I’m waiting for a call back to find out when I can spend another morning waiting for an installer to show.
Update: - Verizon executes about as good of a recovery as one could expect. They rescheduled me for a Saturday, tomorrow, and credited me $100. Plus, they didn’t try and hide the fact they screwed up.
I have never bought a TV. After college I was one of those weird people who didn’t have one. I came into joint ownership of an ancient Sony when I got married. After 14 years of service we have decided to euthanize it. Simultaneously, I discover that Verizon now offers Versus, the channel previously known as OLN that broadcasts the Tour de France each summer.
This convergence of events has stirred me into capex mode. I signed up for Verizon FiOS TV service (not the el cheapo basic Comcast cable I had previously) and will have it installed in a week. And I have promised to perform my masculine tech-hunting duties by securing a new TV by then.
The Tivo DVR does not yet know that it too, will be put out to pasture. I’m about to discover what sort of competitive advantage their software and infrastructure brings.
Unlike the majority of people I know, I like Ottawa. And I’m not Canadian. Business rarely takes me there. But it will next week.
A Nyquist portfolio company reported earnings recently. It’s a small market cap tech firm, <$500M.
I am now the proud recipient of 14 different sell-side research reports, freshly printed, sitting on my desk. Many Weyerhaeuser (WY) pines died to bring me this information. But unlike the information obtained by the Bothan spies, the information sitting on my desk is without exception, worthless.
Why do 14 firms to all cover the same company but don’t try to differentiate themselves in any meaningful way? Out of the 14 reports, all but 1 have either market perform or outperform-like ratings (everyone uses their own catchy term for buy/sell/hold these days). The Sell report is the only one with any differentiated information, and the only one that sticks it’s neck out on the line.
What a waste.
If you pass a newsstand today or tomorrow, pick up a copy of The Economist. They are running an excellent special report on the future of Telecoms, with the independent, slightly continental perspective that makes the Economist such a good periodical.
I’ll be at M.I.T. tonight at the NEFC meeting. There are two speaking topics and a tour of MIT’s optical labs. It sounds like a productive way to spend a Tuesday night. If you are there, swing by and introduce yourself.
Continue reading ‘NEFC Meeting at M.I.T. Tonight’
Going into this conference I was skeptical. I was not expecting an objective discussion about technology. I was expecting a forum where Gilder portfolio companies are given the microphone and allowed to preach to the Gilder priesthood, and a forum where dissidents to the Gilder viewpoint are viewed with skepticism. I was wrong.
Continue reading ‘Final Thoughts on Gilder Telecosm 2006′
I’ve been engaged in constant debate with readers and other investors about my position in Vitesse Semiconductor since disclosing it. Based on reader email, it was one of my more unpopular opinions. I thought it would be appropriate to share my investment thesis from early August with a wider audience.
Based on dialogue I’ve had with multiple Yahoo folks, it looks like their tech support was clueless, and they are trying to figure out why. Based on dialogue I had recently with Yahoo Tech Support, it looks like they are shutting down their subscription music service.
NPU companies consistently make the case the market is moving into their domain and that technology is their edge, right up to the point they go out of business.
Continue reading ‘EZ-Chip and Raza Micro at Gilder Telecosm 2006′
Steve Forbes, John Rutledge, and Carver Mead. In one day, in one place. Fantastic stuff, though readers should be warned you’ll gain more insight into my political rather than my technical beliefs by reading this post. You can be assured they are just as opinionated.
Infinera took the bold and stunning risk of angering the Gilder priesthood by illustrating that an all optical network was not the future and not the best solution.
Continue reading ‘Death of the All Optical Network - Gilder Telecosm 2006′
This was a very interesting debate among some very heavy hitters who operate data centers about where the bottlenecks are in the data centers, and if the new model of massively distributed computing in one centralized data center is a sustainable model.
Continue reading ‘Storewidth Bottlenecks - Gilder Telecosm 2006′
This is really an excellent conference. I am blogging only the sessions that I believe my readers have a direct interest in, but it should be noted that the many interesting sessions are in topics OUTSIDE of what this blog typically covers. I’ll try and summarize some of those events, and add some color to my experience here.
The Gilder Telecosm 2006 conference is punctuated by sponsor company presentations. This session had the CEOs of Luxtera and Finisar (FNSR) presenting, followed by moderator and audience Q&A. I was really looking forward to this discussion given the work I’ve done on SFP’s and Cisco.
I woke up in SFO at 4AM to make sure I could get to Tahoe in time for this debate. I’ve written extensively on Net Neutrality and stopped once I realized it was unresolvable.
Broadband Brawl: A Debate Over Net Neutrality
Continue reading ‘Net Neutrality Debate - Gilder Telecosm 2006′
I’ve arrived here in Squaw Valley, Lake Tahoe at around 8AM. I haven’t been to Tahoe in 7 years and forgot how beautiful it is up here.
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