I’ve got 9 pages of notes from yesterday’s OSA Executive Forum that I will distill and distribute this evening. Craig Matsumoto from Lightreading captured and blogged my fastball question to the Carrier panel composed of BT, Comcast, AT&T, and Verizon. My question was:
There has been a lot of discussion today about Video and the explosion of bandwidth needed to carry it but Peer to Peer traffic is now the largest consumer of bandwidth on your networks. Do you view P2P technology as an opportunity or threat and why?
WiMAX remains the biggest zero billion dollar market known to telecom. I’ve touched on this issue before (see Why does Intel Care About WiMAX?) and readers responded with a torrent of comments, none of which provided a convincing argument to me that WiMAX is substantially better than the evolution of existing 3G infrastructure.
In the absence of a conclusion, let’s turn to our friends in the marketing-research cabal.
Telephony magazine writes about a research report by The Yankee Group which projects 28M WiMAX subscribers in 2010 or 2011. That’s growth from around 250k to 28M in 3-4 years or 250,000 to 28,000,000 with all the zeros. Over 100x growth. In Less than 4 years. Bacteria aspire to growth rates like this.
Everyone talks about the explosion in Video traffic. Everyone talks about the explosion in the bandwidth required to carry it. No one talks about who is going to pay for it. There is one likely source: transit bandwidth inflation.
Big surprise from Comcast (CMCSA) today in the capex department. Barrons has a nice summary of the results. Revenue, subscribers, operating cash flow all met the expectations of the frothing massess, except Capex projections for next year were $1B higher than anticipated. Yes, 20% higher. Updated w/Chart
Prediction is an entertaining activity better suited for stimulating discussion than providing an absolute outlook on the future. Therefore, the bolder and more controversial, the better. Keep that in mind as you read and respond.
It’s pretty clear that the AT&T (T ) and Bellsouth (BLS) merger has turned into a proxy war over Net Neutrality, with Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) spearheading the effort in a naked attempt to keep their distribution costs near zero. Correspondingly, Washington
bloodsuckers lobbyists on both sides are gearing up.
Below is a montage of AT&T (T ) ads circa 1993.
It isn’t clear whether AT&T actually expected to deliver these innovations. They certainly were beat to market by Cable with the cable modem, and I can’t think of a single application innovation out of the company in the last 16 years.
Quick, rank the 10 following companies by market capitalization from large to small. If pressed for time, try picking the three biggest and three smallest.
The big deal isn’t the iPhone itself, which is what the mainstream investment, gadget and tech media is focusing on. It’s the way that it will fundamentally challenge how carriers have coupled services with connectivity with a hardware distribution monopoly.