PMCS

36 posts are filed under this symbol.

AMCC – Further Down the Spiral

image AMCC (AMCC) held a conference call last Friday to review preliminary FQ108 results. The company indicated in April that FQ108 would be $60M down from $70M in the previous quarter (see “AMCC Kicks the Distribution Habit“). The final tally now puts it closer to $50M, a quarter over quarter decline of nearly 30%. This is worthy of detailed examination.

 

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FTTH Silicon Market Share

image The latest Linley Group report on Networking Silicon Market Share provides a breakout of PON FTTH silicon market share for the second year running.. It includes both market size and market share information for all Networking markets, including PON. The key takeaway is that Linley believes the market grew only 20% in dollar size, though I estimate deployments grew worldwide over 50% year over year. Such is life as a semiconductor vendor.

They shared the following data with me.

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State of the Photon – Global FTTH Activity

I haven’t been shy about my prediction that GE-PON would trump GPON deployments and so far I’ve been right. The dominance of GE-PON continues, with large deployments planned or underway throughout Asia. Verizon (VZ) is the only carrier deploying BPON/GPON in size though some activity is promised in Europe. We shall see.

Let’s take a quick look at the state of the photon.

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Vitesse Q207 Conference Call Notes

Vitesse (VTSS.pk) delivered the required fiscal discipline in Q207. While running a super-tight ship does not come without downsides, at this point I believe the benefits outweigh the drawbacks.

My biggest concerns going into the call were inventory and cash management, and the company executed well in these areas in the face of declining shipments.

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Any Hope for Ethernet over PDH?

One area that I strongly believe will see greater capex in 2008-2009 is Enterprise Access. (see “Enterprise Access Capex – A Ray of Hope?“) 

Cable modems forced the Telcos to dig DSL technology from the closet they were hiding it in order to remain competitive. The same forces are aligning today in enterprise access – but this time it’s dark fiber, PON, and even short range wireless that are the threats. What technology represents Telcos only hope of retaining business customers?

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Centillium – Next on Someone’s Shopping List?

The excellent Linley Group discusses Cortina’s recent acquisition of Immenstar, (my coverage here) a maker of FTTH silicon. Cortina is rapidly making itself as a consolidator communication silicon companies and Linley speculates their next target might be a ‘small VDSL vendor’. That vendor would be Centillium (CTLM), though I feel it is a better match for suitors other than Cortina.

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Cortina Acquires Immenstar

Cortina has agreed to acquire Immenstar. I’ve written about both companies extensively (See here and here).

This acquisition is surprising. Cortina previously focused more on the core of the network and has either built or acquired products designed to enable the next generation of WAN equipment for carrier applications. Immenstar is tightly focused on fiber to the home chipsets, a much more access oriented application. I suspect that Cortina is looking to couple it’s carrier class ethernet solutions with Immenstar’s high density OLT solution. Still, it is not a pretty fit.

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Chinese FTTH Silicon Moves Forward

My five part FTTH in China series discussed the players, technology, and opportunity of FTTH in the worlds fastest growing economy.  Teknovus, a private company I follow made an related announcement today. They’ve released the first GE-PON chip compliant with China Telecom’s (CHA) enhanced IEEE GE-PON 802.3ah standard.

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Vitesse Investment Thesis

vitesse1.Png

I’ve been engaged in constant debate with readers and other investors about my position in Vitesse Semiconductor since disclosing it. Based on reader email, it was one of my more unpopular opinions. I thought it would be appropriate to share my investment thesis from early August with a wider audience.

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PMC-Sierra (PMCS) announced a revenue shortfall today. They had guided to $124M and now indicate $116M is more likely. They specifically highlight telecom component demand issues in Asia.

My qualitative information on wireline telecom component demand in China indicates things are going smoothly. It’s possible that PMC’s issues are with GE-PON demand. It’s possible my qualitative info is wrong- Xilinx lowered guidance based on Asian demand and they are a good bellwether.

So, to answer all of you that have asked, I do not know what is going on. At least not yet.

I do not hold any positions with PMC Sierra