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Lacking in these sweeping statements is a reference to a crisp and concise quantitative explanation of traffic growth. This lack of hard data supporting this bandwidth explosion has weighed heavily on us, particularly because we have seen the damage that nebulous predictions of traffic growth caused in 1999-2001.

Everyone remembers the claims of Internet traffic doubling (even more prescient here) every 100 days in 1999? This was pure fiction, yet the political and investment communities accepted it because it was a useful tool for justifying the irrational activity underway. History does not repeat, it rhymes, and the “Video Bandwidth Explosion” sounds very similar to what was said in the Telecom bubble.

Using data from the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIC) one can draw conclusions about the growth in Japanese Internet traffic on a per subscriber basis. The conclusions are not what you would expect given the advanced nature of broadband in Japan, and are troubling when compared with image created by the market.

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Let’s take a quick look at the state of the photon.

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People tout the big benefits of fiber but refuse to allow those who put capital at risk to make big profits. They seem to be afraid that someone, somewhere, might actually make some money.

A report from the Broadband Stakeholder Group summarizes ongoing worldwide fiber to the home (FTTH) projects . The report highlights the need for FTTH in the UK, something BT (BT) has steadfastly refused to do.

I cannot blame BT- asking them to deploy an expensive network and then be forced to lease it out to competitors (with no downside investment protection of course) is a ridiculous thing to expect of a profit driven entity.
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This acquisition is surprising. Cortina previously focused more on the core of the network and has either built or acquired products designed to enable the next generation of WAN equipment for carrier applications. Immenstar is tightly focused on fiber to the home chipsets, a much more access oriented application. I suspect that Cortina is looking to couple it’s carrier class ethernet solutions with Immenstar’s high density OLT solution. Still, it is not a pretty fit.

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The report, which has been reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, warns that at present growth rates cable operators’ existing technology may not be able to compete efficiently with Verizon on Internet services. “At some point, optimization of the (cable) network becomes more expensive than simply deploying” fiber directly to homes, the report warns.

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1. Part One - A radical change in demographics is creating an optimal situation for a fiber build out in China
2. Part Two - GE-PON has taken hold in other countries with similar demographics
3. Part Three - The economic and market conditions appear to favor GE-PON
4. Part Four -The activities by the largest Chinese Telecom actor reinforces this choice

In this fifth and final installment we will examine what questions remain that prevent accurate forecasting of PON deployments in China.
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Enter the Dragon

China Telecom (CHA) recently assembled a very quiet, closed door session of suppliers in order to orchestrate implementation of several extensions to the IEEE 803.3ah GE-PON standard. This event has gone totally unreported in the press. Obviously, knowing which companies attended would be valuable- this is what I have been able to conclude.
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We believe China Telecom (CHA), as well as other Chinese actors, will choose GE-PON. They are motivated by factors that transcend technical specifications, factors that matter most to the selection process.
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Technology Selection – GE-PON vs. G-PON

Chinese carriers will be forced to select between two competing standards for Passive Optical Networks (PON) for Fiber to the Home (FTTH) Deployments.

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All photos and component data (click to enlarge) are courtesy of a Japanese web page. I used Google to translate the page - available here. (I don’t think human translators have much to worry about yet). Zoro, whoever you are, thank you.

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