Nyquist Capital » FNSR

Finisar – FY09 Revenue Outlook

Andrew Schmitt — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:39:52 +0000

Finisar’s Q408 Earnings Call was June 12. Since then the stock has declined nearly 25%, reflecting what we believe is a general dissatisfaction with revenue growth guidance of 10-15%. This guidance appears conservative.

(more…)

Optical Component Consolidation - Part I

Andrew Schmitt — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 21:47:19 +0000

Just as the market abandoned hope of consolidation it strikes. The dust has settled from the merger announcement between Finisar and Optium and in plain terms it is a brilliant move. Finisar is already a leader in the industry but this puts them in an even stronger position than before. This series of posts looks at why it is happening, who benefits, who loses, and suggests what is likely to happen next.

(more…)

10GbE and SFP+ - This Time It’s Different

Andrew Schmitt — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 21:21:05 +0000

One of our more popular theme pieces (see “Five Misconceptions About the 10G Optical Market“) examined the state of the 10GbE market and sought to identify the gaps between market perception and reality. It’s time to publish an update with the facts we have collected and opinions we’ve formed since then.
(more…)

Google’s Secret 10GbE Switch

Andrew Schmitt — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 17:30:31 +0000

It is our opinion that Google (GOOG) has designed and deployed home-grown 10GbE switches as part of a secret internal initiative that was launched when it realized commercial options couldn’t meet the cost and power consumption targets required for their data centers.

This decision by Google, while small in terms of units purchased, is enormous in terms of the disruptive impact it should have on 10GbE switching equipment providers and their component supply chains. It is as if a MACHO just arrived in the Enterprise networking business and the orbits of the existing satellites have begun to shift without observers knowing why - until now.

(more…)

Equinix - Proxy for the Internet

Andrew Schmitt — Tue, 06 Nov 2007 18:11:49 +0000

Lane Patterson, Chief Technologist of Equinix (EQIX), shared his thoughts on data centers and the challenges facing his industry at the 2007 Gilder Telecosm conference. He coined the term ‘bitmile’ and shed some light on how application providers such as CDN’s are adjusting their optical transport architectures to optimize cost.

(more…)

Five Misconceptions About the 10G Optical Market

Andrew Schmitt — Wed, 30 May 2007 20:24:46 +0000

I’ve noticed a common trend during conversations with investors and analysts about the state of the optics market. People seem to be staking their hopes on 10G as the growth driver for the industry. I firmly believe this is true, but people are assuming the gains will be evenly distributed among all players. Here are the common misconceptions:

(more…)

Cornering the Commodity Market

Andrew Schmitt — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 16:56:37 +0000

The most under-reported but most significant announcement at OFC2007 was Finisar’s (FNSR) Fiber to the Home (FTTH) product. Most optical vendors are communicating their intent to NOT make a product for FTTH or Passive Optical Networking (PON) applications. When the worlds highest volume optical module supplier decides to go the opposite way, something noteworthy just happened.

(more…)

OFC 2007 Exec Forum - Ten Things You Missed

Andrew Schmitt — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 21:19:41 +0000

Here’s a top 10 list of my most notable observations from the Executive Forum at the Optical Fiber Conference in Anaheim last Monday.

(more…)

Nortel, Corning, and the $100B Deal That Wasn’t

Andrew Schmitt — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 16:00:49 +0000

Jerry Rawls, CEO of Finisar (FNSR), recounts the talks between Nortel (NT) and Corning (GLW) to sell Nortel’s optical component business. This is a hallmark story of the bubble.

(more…)

Finisar FQ307 Earnings Commentary

Andrew Schmitt — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 14:20:19 +0000

Finisar (FNSR) reported revenue Monday evening of $107.5M. No written transcript of the call is available, though a replay is and the company overview was updated. I thought there were three notable announcements.

(more…)

Why JDSU Bought Picolight

Andrew Schmitt — Thu, 01 Mar 2007 03:09:44 +0000

JDSU (JDSU) announced that they are acquiring Picolight, a maker of VCSEL based optical transceivers. This is yet another example of healthy consolidation in the optical components business, which ultimately will lead to a better business environment for all- except for the customers like Cisco that exploit the oversupply situation. And Cisco is the likely reason JDSU bought Picolight in the first place.

(more…)

Death of the All Optical Network - Gilder Telecosm 2006

Andrew Schmitt — Sun, 08 Oct 2006 18:46:38 +0000

Infinera took the bold and stunning risk of angering the Gilder priesthood by illustrating that an all optical network was not the future and not the best solution.

(more…)

Finisar & Luxtera - Gilder Telecosm 2006

Andrew Schmitt — Fri, 06 Oct 2006 13:02:48 +0000

The Gilder Telecosm 2006 conference is punctuated by sponsor company presentations. This session had the CEOs of Luxtera and Finisar (FNSR) presenting, followed by moderator and audience Q&A. I was really looking forward to this discussion given the work I’ve done on SFP’s and Cisco.

(more…)

The End of Telecom As We Know It And I Feel Fine

Andrew Schmitt — Mon, 25 Sep 2006 19:18:01 +0000

Anyone know where the next ten-bagger investment is in the Telecom sector? Does anyone believe such an idea is even possible anymore?
(more…)

Cortina Acquires Intel Comm Semi’s

Andrew Schmitt — Mon, 11 Sep 2006 18:35:42 +0000

It’s official. Looks like Cortina acquired a digestible portion of Intel’s (INTC) comm semi product line, forgoing the network processors that would bring high SG&A overhead. They focused on the parts they could plug into the company to generate cash flow.

(more…)

Cisco’s Optical Illusion

Andrew Schmitt — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 13:00:25 +0000

It’s common knowledge in the close circles of the optical module business that Cisco (CSCO) has built an extremely profitable business on the backs of optical module companies. What is not appreciated is its magnitude and the corrosive impact it has on the profitability of the optical module business.
(more…)

Cortina Acquires Intel Comm Semi Assets

Andrew Schmitt — Tue, 05 Sep 2006 16:14:29 +0000

This is a developing story. This post will change as I learn more.

It appears Cortina Systems will purchase and operate the communication semiconductor assets of Intel (INTC).

(more…)

What’s Going On in Optical

Andrew Schmitt — Fri, 01 Sep 2006 14:43:29 +0000

OK, since I’ve been called out by Om Malik, I’m going to let rip with a stream-of-conciousness monologue on optical. No backspace key, no delete key, spelling corrections ex-post-facto. Here goes.

(more…)

Head Down, Working

Andrew Schmitt — Thu, 13 Jul 2006 21:54:47 +0000

Received a couple emails and a Yahoo! IM today with the same question… why no blogging?

I’m working on a detailed study on optical modules. I think I’ve found something particularly interesting.
(more…)

SFP+ … Yet Another 10G Optical MSA?

Andrew Schmitt — Thu, 22 Jun 2006 12:00:54 +0000

This article is an anonymous submission from a dedicated reader and frustrated engineer

A decade or more ago life as an “optical guy”…as grad student or a professional, revolved around fairly simple things…moving photons over here, a little “guvment” money over there, a product or two now and then…good times, good times. And if you were lucky enough to score a (gasp!) postdoc (swoon!) at Bell Labs, why ANYONE would work grueling hours for Dickensian low pay for a chance to work on things like… SONET…. DWDM… FIBER… BANDWIDTH… DATACOM…

Economics, ROI, quarterly growth, P/E, investor guidance and things of that sort, well that simply did not matter. For the truly patient investor, the general idea of a “boutique investment” applied well…a fairly complex science understood by the few in service of fewer still.
(more…)