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Adtran Q108
Adtran reported surprisingly good numbers and made specific comments that indicate the Great North American capex freeze of 2007 is thawing in a few areas. The company also had interesting things to say relative to access market growth and trends in the Enterprise portion of their business.
The Real Carrier Ethernet Opportunity
It is amazing how little can change in three years. I spent a great deal of time working on Carrier Ethernet in 2004 and 2005, and the presentations I saw at the Lightreading Ethernet Conference and Expo were no different than the ones I saw in 2004.
Equipment makers such as Ciena (CIEN) sang the praises of Carrier Ethernet (all true) and spoke of the various impediments to deploying it: standardization of inter carrier interfaces, administration & operation, quality of service. It strikes me that the bigger problem is much more basic than the ones being presented.
AT&T Carrier Ethernet Perspectives
Rich Klapman, AT&T Director of Marketing for Ethernet Services, presented yesterday at the Lightreading Ethernet Expo. He provided some perspective on what AT&T is doing in Carrier Ethernet. He was one of several speakers who hit on the scarcity of fiber as a barrier to deploying Ethernet. Here are some raw notes.
The Bandwidth Explosion Myth
Not a single day passes where we do not hear the mantra of a “Bandwidth Explosion” used to justify aggressive financial forecasts for equipment and component companies, carrier backbone demand models, even regulation or deregulation of the Internet.
Lacking in these sweeping statements is a reference to a crisp and concise quantitative explanation of traffic growth. This lack of hard data supporting this bandwidth explosion has weighed heavily on us, particularly because we have seen the damage that nebulous predictions of traffic growth caused in 1999-2001.
Everyone remembers the claims of Internet traffic doubling (even more prescient here) every 100 days in 1999? This was pure fiction, yet the political and investment communities accepted it because it was a useful tool for justifying the irrational activity underway. History does not repeat, it rhymes, and the “Video Bandwidth Explosion” sounds very similar to what was said in the Telecom bubble.
Using data from the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIC) one can draw conclusions about the growth in Japanese Internet traffic on a per subscriber basis. The conclusions are not what you would expect given the advanced nature of broadband in Japan, and are troubling when compared with image created by the market.
Telecom, Meet Web 2.0
Google (GOOG) appears to be buying GrandCentral, a company that merges VoIP and advanced calling features. They provide you with a single phone number and web/mobile interfaces to manage call redirection, voicemail, address books, etc. Think of it as VoIP on steroids and EPO, simultaneously. Click over to their Features page for a better description and familiarize yourself with how outdated a plain landline has become.
AT&T Lightspeed Gets More Expensive
All is not well at the Death Star today. AT&T (T ) announced that capex for the U-Verse IPTV & Fiber to the Node initiative (known as Project Lightspeed) would increase from $4.6B to $6.5B. They also announced the scope of the project was being reduced from 19M to 18M homes.
This is a sizable increase (41%) in capex for a project that was designed to minimize cost. It is indicative that the decision AT&T made to substitute advanced technology to deliver an incremental solution in favor of laying fiber isn’t going as planned. The price of mediocrity just went up.
Lightreading Gives Ma Bell Both Barrels
R. Scott Raynovich, Editor in Chief of Lightreading, unloads both barrels into retiring AT&T (T ) CEO Ed Whitacre in a Lightreading editorial outlining the massive gap between his pay and performance.
Shareholder activism along the lines of Carl Icahn’s Motorola crusade is sadly absent in the Networking component, equipment, and carrier business that I follow. Companies such as Centillium (CTLM) and Sycamore (SCMR) are allowed to drift along in a zombie-like state at the expense of investors. Even Robert Chapman has abandoned his cause at Vitesse.
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FTTH Stakeholders /= FTTH Shareholders
People tout the big benefits of fiber but refuse to allow those who put capital at risk to make big profits. They seem to be afraid that someone, somewhere, might actually make some money.
A report from the Broadband Stakeholder Group summarizes ongoing worldwide fiber to the home (FTTH) projects . The report highlights the need for FTTH in the UK, something BT (BT) has steadfastly refused to do.
I cannot blame BT- asking them to deploy an expensive network and then be forced to lease it out to competitors (with no downside investment protection of course) is a ridiculous thing to expect of a profit driven entity.
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Enterprise Access Capex - A Ray of Hope?
Only one half of Verizon’s wireline (VZ) revenue comes from consumers; the rest comes from business connectivity and services. Verizon, as well as other carriers, have been spending money to deliver better broadband services to consumers. What will happen when they spray this capex hose in the direction of their long neglected business customers? Which equipment companies will benefit?
Home PCs and Home Theater Don’t Mix
Anandtech has an absolutely horrifying review detailing the trials and tribulations of setting up a Windows Vista home theater PC (HTPC) with the first HD capable TV tuner from ATI (AMD). Even with the on-site assistance of Dell (DELL) and Time Warner Cable (TWC) (with promptness and technical expertise you or I could never hope to see) it took two days to get the Windows Vista PC, external HDTV cable tuner, and Time Warner Network integrated and up and running. The resulting experience was great, though most consumers would have never had the patience or technical fortitude to get it up and running. It makes one wonder why anyone would bother to do this at all.
OFC 2007 - Carriers Speak Out On Peer to Peer
I’ve got 9 pages of notes from yesterday’s OSA Executive Forum that I will distill and distribute this evening. Craig Matsumoto from Lightreading captured and blogged my fastball question to the Carrier panel composed of BT, Comcast, AT&T, and Verizon. My question was:
There has been a lot of discussion today about Video and the explosion of bandwidth needed to carry it but Peer to Peer traffic is now the largest consumer of bandwidth on your networks. Do you view P2P technology as an opportunity or threat and why?
Who, What, Where, When, and WhyMAX
WiMAX remains the biggest zero billion dollar market known to telecom. I’ve touched on this issue before (see Why does Intel Care About WiMAX?) and readers responded with a torrent of comments, none of which provided a convincing argument to me that WiMAX is substantially better than the evolution of existing 3G infrastructure.
In the absence of a conclusion, let’s turn to our friends in the marketing-research cabal.
Telephony magazine writes about a research report by The Yankee Group which projects 28M WiMAX subscribers in 2010 or 2011. That’s growth from around 250k to 28M in 3-4 years or 250,000 to 28,000,000 with all the zeros. Over 100x growth. In Less than 4 years. Bacteria aspire to growth rates like this.
Who Pays for the Online Video Boom?
Everyone talks about the explosion in Video traffic. Everyone talks about the explosion in the bandwidth required to carry it. No one talks about who is going to pay for it. There is one likely source: transit bandwidth inflation.
Comcast: Party Like it’s 1999
Big surprise from Comcast (CMCSA) today in the capex department. Barrons has a nice summary of the results. Revenue, subscribers, operating cash flow all met the expectations of the frothing massess, except Capex projections for next year were $1B higher than anticipated. Yes, 20% higher. Updated w/Chart
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Nyquist Predictions For 2007
Prediction is an entertaining activity better suited for stimulating discussion than providing an absolute outlook on the future. Therefore, the bolder and more controversial, the better. Keep that in mind as you read and respond.
Net Neutrality War Heating Up
It’s pretty clear that the AT&T (T ) and Bellsouth (BLS) merger has turned into a proxy war over Net Neutrality, with Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) spearheading the effort in a naked attempt to keep their distribution costs near zero. Correspondingly, Washington bloodsuckers lobbyists on both sides are gearing up.
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AT&T - “You Will” but They Didn’t
Below is a montage of AT&T (T ) ads circa 1993.
It isn’t clear whether AT&T actually expected to deliver these innovations. They certainly were beat to market by Cable with the cable modem, and I can’t think of a single application innovation out of the company in the last 16 years.
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Fun With Market Caps
Quick, rank the 10 following companies by market capitalization from large to small. If pressed for time, try picking the three biggest and three smallest.
What Matters About The Apple iPhone
The big deal isn’t the iPhone itself, which is what the mainstream investment, gadget and tech media is focusing on. It’s the way that it will fundamentally challenge how carriers have coupled services with connectivity with a hardware distribution monopoly.
Someone Tell the Cablecos Fixed Line is Dead
Everyone agrees fixed line is a dying, low margin business. Yet Cablecos like Comcast (CMCSA), Cablevision (CVC), Shaw (SJR), and Time Warner (TWX) are feverishly trying to capture market share in this business. Why?
