CSCO
Fairpoint & Occam Networks
Fairpoint Communications (FRP) plans to spend $781M over the next 5 years maintaining and upgrading the network they purchased from Verizon. Drilling into the details of the network spending suggests Occam Networks (OCNW) is well positioned to materially benefit from this proposed deployment. Details provided by Fairpoint and fundamental metrics of the Broadband Loop Carrier business lead us to believe Occam will recognize up to $125M in revenue, of which $80M will come in the next 18-24 months, provided Fairpoint executes it’s current capex plan.
10GbE and SFP+ - This Time It’s Different
One of our more popular theme pieces (see “Five Misconceptions About the 10G Optical Market“) examined the state of the 10GbE market and sought to identify the gaps between market perception and reality. It’s time to publish an update with the facts we have collected and opinions we’ve formed since then.
Continue reading
Google’s Secret 10GbE Switch
It is our opinion that Google (GOOG) has designed and deployed home-grown 10GbE switches as part of a secret internal initiative that was launched when it realized commercial options couldn’t meet the cost and power consumption targets required for their data centers.
This decision by Google, while small in terms of units purchased, is enormous in terms of the disruptive impact it should have on 10GbE switching equipment providers and their component supply chains. It is as if a MACHO just arrived in the Enterprise networking business and the orbits of the existing satellites have begun to shift without observers knowing why - until now.
Cisco’s Fear of a Broadcom Planet
There are few franchises in the silicon business where one vendor so completely dominates the market. Everyone can name Intel’s CPU business as one. But can you name another?
Infineon/TI (IFX) in DSL is a contender. Conexant (CNXT) in PC modems (but little profit to show for it). Netlogic (NETL) in exotic CAM’s (but beholden to one sugar daddy customer - Cisco).
But nothing approaches the complete and total dominance of Broadcom’s (BRCM) grip on Ethernet switching silicon.
Ciena and The Future of Carrier Ethernet
Ciena (CIEN) shares have been on a bit of a tear recently, rising 20% in June. Unfortunately we haven’t participated in this gain and I believe it is worth explaining the historical thinking behind this decision.
MRV Goes 10GE to the Premises
MRV Communications (MRVC) announced the OptiSwitch 930, a 10G Ethernet demarcation box today. Demarc boxes are designed to sit at a customer site to manage and monitor the interface between the customer premises and the carriers network. While it is certainly a headline grabbing offering I don’t think significant demand exists for a 10G demarc device. It does highlight the increasing interest in hardware for providing ethernet services to businesses. (see “Enterprise Access Capex - A Ray of Hope?“)
Five Misconceptions About the 10G Optical Market
I’ve noticed a common trend during conversations with investors and analysts about the state of the optics market. People seem to be staking their hopes on 10G as the growth driver for the industry. I firmly believe this is true, but people are assuming the gains will be evenly distributed among all players. Here are the common misconceptions:
Finisar FQ307 Earnings Commentary
Finisar (FNSR) reported revenue Monday evening of $107.5M. No written transcript of the call is available, though a replay is and the company overview was updated. I thought there were three notable announcements.
Dirty Secrets of Router Interface Pricing
Great stuff today over at the Global Crossing (GLBC) blog, where they spill the beans on their internal investigation into the cost/bit for Ethernet vs. SONET/SDH router interfaces.
The conclusion? The biggest price disparity isn’t necessarily Ethernet vs. SONET interfaces. It’s the difference between big iron routers from vendors like Cisco (CSCO) and scaled up switch routers like the Cisco 7600 or Cat 6k or equivalent products from Force 10.
Why JDSU Bought Picolight
JDSU (JDSU) announced that they are acquiring Picolight, a maker of VCSEL based optical transceivers. This is yet another example of healthy consolidation in the optical components business, which ultimately will lead to a better business environment for all- except for the customers like Cisco that exploit the oversupply situation. And Cisco is the likely reason JDSU bought Picolight in the first place.
BT’s 21CN - Reversing a Victorian Tradition
England is near the top of the list of countries I don’t like to visit. My wife likes watching the tedious Victorian England dramas of BBC “Masterpiece Theatre”. I last about 10 minutes until their images force memories of stuffy rooms, bad heating, weird ergonomics and truly god-awful food to resurface.
There is one exception to my stereotype. British Telecom’s (BT) 21st Century (21CN) initiative. No Victorian Bric-a-Brac here.
Xbox IPTV Announced at CES
I love it when a plan comes together.
I’m here in Vegas and Microsoft (MSFT) has announced that the Xbox 360 will be morphed into a set-top box, delivering IPTV like functionality. This is something I predicted almost a year ago, based on the fact it made sense and Microsoft appeared to telegraph this.
Nyquist Predictions For 2007
Prediction is an entertaining activity better suited for stimulating discussion than providing an absolute outlook on the future. Therefore, the bolder and more controversial, the better. Keep that in mind as you read and respond.
Cisco vs. the World. Cisco is Winning.
Here’s a quick statistic worth sharing. Cisco (CSCO) CEO John Chambers spoke yesterday at the Credit Suisse Tech Conference and made the following point.
Cisco’s market capitalization has increased from $10B in January 1995 to $110B in November 2005 to $165B in November 2006; during that same period, the aggregate market capitalization of its 12 largest competitors has declined from $71B to $62B to $55B.
Wow. I’d like to get the detail behind this one.
Full Disclosure - I hold Cisco puts as a hedge against other positions. Lucky for me they are not positions in Cisco competitors…
Fun With Market Caps
Quick, rank the 10 following companies by market capitalization from large to small. If pressed for time, try picking the three biggest and three smallest.
Dr. Strangelove, Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love Huawei.
I know two American engineers who have relocated to China to lead optical module design teams at Chinese equipment companies. They live and work in China for Chinese companies, using their skills to build custom modules - skills no longer in demand from their American Tier-1 telecom equipment employers.
Cisco’s Scorched Earth Strategy
Cisco swallowed another chip company this morning, Greenfield Networks. The notable thing about this acquisition is that Cisco rival Huawei/3Com built their high end system around the Greenfield device. I’m willing to bet that Greenfield was a lot more important to Huawei/3Com than it was to Cisco. And I’m willing to bet that’s why Cisco bought them.
Xbox Does IPTV - It’s Official
Microsoft (MSFT) just announced that on November 22nd the Xbox 360 will allow users to purchase and rent high definition television and movies. I made this call back in January of 2006, and repeatedly since then (search this site for Xbox IPTV).
Pulling the Plug on Tivo
I’ve pulled the plug on Tivo (TIVO) after three years of great service. With my recent FiOS TV subscription, I needed HD capability and I cannot justify paying $800 for hardware I get for free from Verizon (VZ). I just wish I had tried to cancel my Tivo service earlier as they offered to cut the per month fee in half if I stayed. That’s a bad leading indicator for the health of this company.
EZ-Chip and Raza Micro at Gilder Telecosm 2006
NPU companies consistently make the case the market is moving into their domain and that technology is their edge, right up to the point they go out of business.
