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FTTH market grows 42% in 2007

Dittberneer: GE-PON share of the overall market declined to 67% from 82% in 2006 and is projected to drop to 54% in 2008. GPON expected to grow from 7% to 38% share in 2008. (I think this is optimistic given VZ is still shipping B-PON in March ’08)

Lightwave – FTTH shipments set record in 3Q07

Summary of Dittberner’s analysis of FTTH shipments and market share. Japanese GE-PON suppliers are 54% of the market (down from 78% a year ago), and Tellabs B-PON took 19%. Everything should look different in a year.

Japan: 10.52 Million FTTH Customers – Versus 13.48 million DSL customers (and dropping)

GE-PON breaks 10M customers in Japan, growing 8% in a single quarter.

The Proving Ground of NTT

image The Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is a great source for data on Japanese communication infrastructure and usage. A recent document provides a state-of-the-network update and lays out the goals for the next 3 years.

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FTTH Silicon Market Share

image The latest Linley Group report on Networking Silicon Market Share provides a breakout of PON FTTH silicon market share for the second year running.. It includes both market size and market share information for all Networking markets, including PON. The key takeaway is that Linley believes the market grew only 20% in dollar size, though I estimate deployments grew worldwide over 50% year over year. Such is life as a semiconductor vendor.

They shared the following data with me.

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State of the Photon – Global FTTH Activity

I haven’t been shy about my prediction that GE-PON would trump GPON deployments and so far I’ve been right. The dominance of GE-PON continues, with large deployments planned or underway throughout Asia. Verizon (VZ) is the only carrier deploying BPON/GPON in size though some activity is promised in Europe. We shall see.

Let’s take a quick look at the state of the photon.

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Cornering the Commodity Market

The most under-reported but most significant announcement at OFC2007 was Finisar’s (FNSR) Fiber to the Home (FTTH) product. Most optical vendors are communicating their intent to NOT make a product for FTTH or Passive Optical Networking (PON) applications. When the worlds highest volume optical module supplier decides to go the opposite way, something noteworthy just happened.

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Chinese FTTH Silicon Moves Forward

My five part FTTH in China series discussed the players, technology, and opportunity of FTTH in the worlds fastest growing economy.  Teknovus, a private company I follow made an related announcement today. They’ve released the first GE-PON chip compliant with China Telecom’s (CHA) enhanced IEEE GE-PON 802.3ah standard.

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PMC-Sierra (PMCS) announced a revenue shortfall today. They had guided to $124M and now indicate $116M is more likely. They specifically highlight telecom component demand issues in Asia.

My qualitative information on wireline telecom component demand in China indicates things are going smoothly. It’s possible that PMC’s issues are with GE-PON demand. It’s possible my qualitative info is wrong- Xilinx lowered guidance based on Asian demand and they are a good bellwether.

So, to answer all of you that have asked, I do not know what is going on. At least not yet.

I do not hold any positions with PMC Sierra

GPON Interoperability Smokescreen

fsan.gifFSAN has completed their first GPON interoperability testing. Interoperability of GPON systems is important, since the ITU standard ultimately should yield systems that interface more smoothly than the loosely defined GE-PON specification.

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