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Point of order, total videos on the internet aren’t down, just US views. People may not value the international viewers, but I would bet that if Hitwise took a look at the global market, that there is still plenty of blistering growth going on.
Good point.
But one still cannot resolve this data against the ongoing “video bandwidth explosion” cited by Cisco, pundits, etc.
I would like to see some hard data behind this “video explosion”. I don’t doubt traffic is going up but I really don’t think people know what the traffic is.
I’d like to see more granularity in their data as well. It’s hard to understand why video would be slowing in the US without the details. It would be nice, if there was something one could point to, that could better explain why the US market seems to have hit a peak. It would also be nice if we had better data on P2P usuage, especially because that has a bigger impact on bandwidth than streaming. With a lot of details left out, I can’t help but wonder if they are still missing some sites. How would you calculate video usage on Netflix for example? They won’t even give out stats because I think that they are worried about competition being attracted to their business model. Since the data is free, I probably shouldn’t complain too much about it, but its hard to reconcile the numbers when my gut keeps telling me that internet video is more popular than ever.
The problem I have with P2P stats is most of them come from DPI (Deep Packet Inspection)vendors who have an obvious bias to inflate them.
Outside of the DPI vendors, the numbers just seem to be all over the place.
As I have said before, traffic growth just isn’t that meaningful. It is revenue generating traffic growth that matters.
Go here, look at the top 100 global sites
http://www.alexa.com/site/ds/top_sites?ts_mode=global&lang=none
What is rapidshare (position 12)?
When you understand what rapidshare is and why it’s number 12, has video really declined???
Maybe it’s just changed in nature and the new nature is no longer measure by your metrics?
Total videos viewed is actually the wrong metric to use when contrasting with folks like Cisco, because it ignores increases in the average bitrate and duration of each video.
How does the Hitwise 9% drop from May 2007 to May 2008 square with the Comscore 66% gain from Feb 07 to Feb 08? More on my blog at http://ikeelliott.typepad.com/telecosm/2008/07/hitwise-claimin.html