Archive for June, 2007
IEEE Lottery n The act of many startup companies attempting to build components for an emerging standard where the market can support only one or two. Usage: “Who will win the IEEE lottery for 10G-Base-T?”, “Is it worth playing the WiMAX IEEE Lottery? Will anyone win?”, “Who will Cisco select as the winner of the SFP+ IEEE Lottery?”
Telecom, Meet Web 2.0
Google (GOOG) appears to be buying GrandCentral, a company that merges VoIP and advanced calling features. They provide you with a single phone number and web/mobile interfaces to manage call redirection, voicemail, address books, etc. Think of it as VoIP on steroids and EPO, simultaneously. Click over to their Features page for a better description and familiarize yourself with how outdated a plain landline has become.
Whales, Crude, and Plants
While a little off topic I thought the following was worth sharing. I read a WSJ book review written by one of my favorite authors, John Steele Gordon. He reviewed “Leviathan“, a comprehensive account of the history of Whaling. Here’s an excerpt from the review:
American whalers ranged farther and farther across the world’s oceans as their prey grew scarce in home waters … But as the price of whale oil ratcheted up in the face of increasing demand and decreasing supply, competition from other sources began to increase. When Edwin Drake demonstrated the practicality of drilling for petroleum in 1859, the glory days of American whaling were over.
One cannot avoid drawing parallels between this significant black swan event that single handedly destroyed America’s largest pre-industrial age business and the recent announcements regarding cellulose ethanol.
I am certain readers of this blog would greatly enjoy both ”Empire of Wealth” and “A Thread Across the Ocean“.
FTTH Silicon Market Share
The latest Linley Group report on Networking Silicon Market Share provides a breakout of PON FTTH silicon market share for the second year running.. It includes both market size and market share information for all Networking markets, including PON. The key takeaway is that Linley believes the market grew only 20% in dollar size, though I estimate deployments grew worldwide over 50% year over year. Such is life as a semiconductor vendor.
They shared the following data with me.
MRV Goes 10GE to the Premises
MRV Communications (MRVC) announced the OptiSwitch 930, a 10G Ethernet demarcation box today. Demarc boxes are designed to sit at a customer site to manage and monitor the interface between the customer premises and the carriers network. While it is certainly a headline grabbing offering I don’t think significant demand exists for a 10G demarc device. It does highlight the increasing interest in hardware for providing ethernet services to businesses. (see “Enterprise Access Capex - A Ray of Hope?“)
I’ll be at NFOEC Supercomm NXTComm in Chicago for two days. The show is equipment centric, not component centric, so I’m focusing more on prowling the floor than meeting 1:1 with companies. That said, if you have a message that you think I’d be interested in, feel free to contact me.
Infinera - The Optical Component Company That Wasn’t
Infinera (INFN) had a very successful first day of trading after seven years of working counter to the popular and misguided beliefs of a Gilderesque all optical future.
Great controversy surrounds the company and investors wonder whether the valuation attached to company is justifiable. The valuation is indeed debatable and is predicated on their success penetrating the PTTs & Bellcos.
Global Penetration of Wired vs. Wireless Voice
The most recent Dallas Federal Reserve Annual report contains a compilation of statistics used to illustrate the impact technology is having on global growth.
One of the more interesting graphics was one illustrating wired and wireless telephony penetration as a function of GDP per capita.
If you told someone 20 years ago that wireless telephony would trump wired telephony they would have told you to stop reading so many Sci-FI books, and start focusing on the monopolistic threat posed by Ma Bell and her telephony monopoly.
Here we are today, attempting to predict a winner between Cable broadband and Telco DSL/FTTH broadband. Or worrying if any alternatives will exist without direct government intervention and subsidies.
Is it possible, 20 years from now, that current concerns of FTTH and the duopoly of Cableco/Telco last-mile access appear absurd in the face of widespread, inexpensive high-speed wireless access?
Kubrick Does the iPhone Ad
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you must be aware that Apple (AAPL) is launching their iPhone at the end of this month. The hype is incredible. I don’t see how the device can meet expectations. The first iPhone TV ads appeared Sunday - you can view them here.
This unauthorized version, filmed by Stanley Kubrick 30 years ago, covers the true and highly classified origins of the iPhone.
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