Comments on: The Future of FTTH in China – Part III http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/ More Signal. Less Noise. Thu, 02 Apr 2009 12:29:57 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: The Future of FTTH in China - Part IV at Nyquist Capital http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-498 The Future of FTTH in China - Part IV at Nyquist Capital Fri, 10 Nov 2006 17:36:54 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-498 [...] This is part IV in a continuing series. Part III can be found here. [...] [...] This is part IV in a continuing series. Part III can be found here. [...]

]]> By: The Future of FTTH in China - Part V at Nyquist Capital http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-497 The Future of FTTH in China - Part V at Nyquist Capital Fri, 10 Nov 2006 17:20:34 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-497 [...] Part Three - The economic and market conditions appear to favor GE-PON [...] [...] Part Three – The economic and market conditions appear to favor GE-PON [...]

]]> By: David King http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-496 David King Wed, 05 Jul 2006 04:17:07 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-496 'Beijing olympics and massive telecom capex' is just a hype of those hungry equipment vendors. In fact, there will be mere small telecom capex for wiring those new stadiums in Beijing. ‘Beijing olympics and massive telecom capex’ is just a hype of those hungry equipment vendors. In fact, there will be mere small telecom capex for wiring those new stadiums in Beijing.

]]> By: Andrew Schmitt http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-495 Andrew Schmitt Tue, 04 Jul 2006 15:56:42 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-495 I wish I had a dollar for every time someone mentioned the Beijing olympics and massive telecom capex. How about some hard data showing a link? I wish I had a dollar for every time someone mentioned the Beijing olympics and massive telecom capex.

How about some hard data showing a link?

]]> By: drw http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-494 drw Mon, 03 Jul 2006 06:48:28 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-494 I think this all comes down to the technology that is ready for prime time to meet the 2008 Olympics. GPON implementations will just ready to go into the RBOC labs in September, and you can add a good year before they are ready for inital deployments. I would think the Chinese would need a technolgy platform that is ready for primetime by Summer of 2007.GEPON is the clear winner in this regard. I think this all comes down to the technology that is ready for prime time to meet the 2008 Olympics. GPON implementations will just ready to go into the RBOC labs in September, and you can add a good year before they are ready for inital deployments. I would think the Chinese would need a technolgy platform that is ready for primetime by Summer of 2007.GEPON is the clear winner in this regard.

]]> By: Dan Parsons http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-493 Dan Parsons Wed, 21 Jun 2006 20:58:50 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-493 It is IEEE 802.3ah's flexibility that does not lend itself to interoperability. As you mentioned "while GE-PON has underwent informal interoperability testing at NTT labs for several years" there's still only one silicon vendor at NTT. On the other hand, ITU-T G.984 has undergone a very successful interop at Telcordia with 10 participants. There'll even more interops sponsored by FSAN and ITU in 2006 with even more participating. In such a short time, GPON has come a long way due to its well defined standard. This also opens the way for multiple silicon vendors. The success of DSL is a result of such interop activities lead by international standard committees and not carriers. It is IEEE 802.3ah’s flexibility that does not lend itself to interoperability. As you mentioned “while GE-PON has underwent informal interoperability testing at NTT labs for several years” there’s still only one silicon vendor at NTT. On the other hand, ITU-T G.984 has undergone a very successful interop at Telcordia with 10 participants. There’ll even more interops sponsored by FSAN and ITU in 2006 with even more participating. In such a short time, GPON has come a long way due to its well defined standard. This also opens the way for multiple silicon vendors. The success of DSL is a result of such interop activities lead by international standard committees and not carriers.

]]> By: FTTHblog » Parts 3 and 4 of Nyquist Condition China FTTH Series http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-492 FTTHblog » Parts 3 and 4 of Nyquist Condition China FTTH Series Wed, 21 Jun 2006 16:27:55 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-492 [...] Andrew Schmitt, publisher of the Nyquist Condition blog has recently posted parts 3 and 4 of his series of articles on FTTH in China. Part 3 deals extensively on the choice between GPON and GEPON technologies for Chinese carriers. Based on component availability, cost, maturity, and flexibility it is Andrew’s opinion that GEPON will prevail in China. At the end of part 3 and in part 4 of the series, information is presented to Chinese efforts to extend the IEEE 803.3ah GEPON standard to a new flavor called "CPON". Apparently, a closed door meeting was held recently in China where US and Chinese chip vendors and Chinese equipment companies discussed this extension to the standard. [...] [...] Andrew Schmitt, publisher of the Nyquist Condition blog has recently posted parts 3 and 4 of his series of articles on FTTH in China. Part 3 deals extensively on the choice between GPON and GEPON technologies for Chinese carriers. Based on component availability, cost, maturity, and flexibility it is Andrew’s opinion that GEPON will prevail in China. At the end of part 3 and in part 4 of the series, information is presented to Chinese efforts to extend the IEEE 803.3ah GEPON standard to a new flavor called "CPON". Apparently, a closed door meeting was held recently in China where US and Chinese chip vendors and Chinese equipment companies discussed this extension to the standard. [...]

]]> By: Simon Wang http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-491 Simon Wang Thu, 15 Jun 2006 03:08:30 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-491 I agree with the current market status regarding GPON and GE-EPON in China, but telecom operators like China Telecom(CT) and China Netcom (CNC) still think GPON will be the final winner because they believe: 1)GPON is ITU standard with many advantages over GE-PON2) GPON price will be the same as EPON price in near future after GPON ASIC is available and business volume groups up. 3)China Telecom and CNC will not deploy GE-PON in large scale in near term because IPTV can't be deployed in large scale because of many specific difficulties in China, this will give CT and CNC enough time to wait for GPON solution maturity. In addition, mobile carriers like China Mobile are think of using GPON in mobile BTS backhaul application, this will also be a big market and the price is not sensitive. So, GPON still look good in China. I agree with the current market status regarding GPON and GE-EPON in China, but telecom operators like China Telecom(CT) and China Netcom (CNC) still think GPON will be the final winner because they believe: 1)GPON is ITU standard with many advantages over GE-PON2) GPON price will be the same as EPON price in near future after GPON ASIC is available and business volume groups up. 3)China Telecom and CNC will not deploy GE-PON in large scale in near term because IPTV can’t be deployed in large scale because of many specific difficulties in China, this will give CT and CNC enough time to wait for GPON solution maturity.
In addition, mobile carriers like China Mobile are think of using GPON in mobile BTS backhaul application, this will also be a big market and the price is not sensitive.
So, GPON still look good in China.

]]> By: Andrew Schmitt http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-490 Andrew Schmitt Wed, 14 Jun 2006 01:14:46 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-490 Trying to distill a description of how Chinese government works into a single paragraph is a challenge. Trying to distill a description of how Chinese government works into a single paragraph is a challenge.

]]> By: Enzio von Pfeil http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-489 Enzio von Pfeil Tue, 13 Jun 2006 21:59:53 +0000 http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/06/13/the-future-of-ftth-in-china-part-iii/#comment-489 I think that the following needs a little clarification: "... China is a confederation of provinces and townships with varying amount of influence, and each is slowly coerced into following a high level dictum..." My concern is this "high level dictum" bit. The fact is that most orders issued by the Centre never get out of the Compound! Instead, local officals increasingly are local emporers. Witness the recent spates regarding land/property, or indeed pollution control. There may be "high level dictums", but they stay in the clouds (except as regards police and military matters....). The simple point is that China's leaders from the provinces down are growth-obsessed, all the moreso the next 18 months when one of China's largest overhauls of its civil service is about to occur... I think that the following needs a little clarification:
“… China is a confederation of provinces and townships with varying amount of influence, and each is slowly coerced into following a high level dictum…”

My concern is this “high level dictum” bit. The fact is that most orders issued by the Centre never get out of the Compound!

Instead, local officals increasingly are local emporers. Witness the recent spates regarding land/property, or indeed pollution control.

There may be “high level dictums”, but they stay in the clouds (except as regards police and military matters….). The simple point is that China’s leaders from the provinces down are growth-obsessed, all the moreso the next 18 months when one of China’s largest overhauls of its civil service is about to occur…

]]>