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	<title>Comments on: Why I Don&#8217;t Own Optical Component Stocks (yet)</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/</link>
	<description>More Signal. Less Noise.</description>
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		<title>By: Finisar &#8211; FY09 Revenue Outlook &#124; Nyquist Capital</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-424</link>
		<dc:creator>Finisar &#8211; FY09 Revenue Outlook &#124; Nyquist Capital</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:40:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-424</guid>
		<description>[...] of fortune. I believed the positive sentiment attached to Finisar in 2006 was absurd (see “Why I Don’t Own Optical Component Stocks (yet)”) but believe the negative sentiment today to be equally [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] of fortune. I believed the positive sentiment attached to Finisar in 2006 was absurd (see “Why I Don’t Own Optical Component Stocks (yet)”) but believe the negative sentiment today to be equally [...]</p>
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		<title>By: What&#8217;s Going On in Optical at Nyquist Capital</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-423</link>
		<dc:creator>What&#8217;s Going On in Optical at Nyquist Capital</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Sep 2006 22:10:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-423</guid>
		<description>[...] Optical Components - Competitive environment still sucks. Too many suppliers trying to kill each other. Market divided into two sectors, low-end (1/2/4G SFP modules, including FTTH) and high-end (DWDM, Long Reach, Amps, ROADMs, exotic stuff). Cisco (CSCO) buys 70% of the low end and effectively plays the suppliers against each other. Suppliers need to stop playing their game. High-End fundamentally has a better business environment but I do not understand why those vendors haven&#8217;t finished their cost cutting. JDSU (JDSU) engaging in schitzophentic business plan pursuing both test equipment and optics. They need to decide what their mission is. Bookham (BKHM) talks the right game about consolidation but can&#8217;t seem to generate positive cash flow. Avanex (AVNX) is off my radar, last sighted with bloated French (legacy Alcatel division) opex and descending fast through 10k feet. Best investments here are the companies that own the technical high ground, the lasers, detectors, fabs etc. and have the unit volume to leverage those investments. That&#8217;s Finisar (FNSR), Bookham, and Avago (Owned by KKR/Silverlake). Still unclear what impact China will have. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Optical Components &#8211; Competitive environment still sucks. Too many suppliers trying to kill each other. Market divided into two sectors, low-end (1/2/4G SFP modules, including FTTH) and high-end (DWDM, Long Reach, Amps, ROADMs, exotic stuff). Cisco (CSCO) buys 70% of the low end and effectively plays the suppliers against each other. Suppliers need to stop playing their game. High-End fundamentally has a better business environment but I do not understand why those vendors haven&#8217;t finished their cost cutting. JDSU (JDSU) engaging in schitzophentic business plan pursuing both test equipment and optics. They need to decide what their mission is. Bookham (BKHM) talks the right game about consolidation but can&#8217;t seem to generate positive cash flow. Avanex (AVNX) is off my radar, last sighted with bloated French (legacy Alcatel division) opex and descending fast through 10k feet. Best investments here are the companies that own the technical high ground, the lasers, detectors, fabs etc. and have the unit volume to leverage those investments. That&#8217;s Finisar (FNSR), Bookham, and Avago (Owned by KKR/Silverlake). Still unclear what impact China will have. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: George McElroy</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-422</link>
		<dc:creator>George McElroy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Jul 2006 18:58:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-422</guid>
		<description>Anyone considering BKHM which is now in the 2.50&#039;s</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anyone considering BKHM which is now in the 2.50&#8217;s</p>
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		<title>By: Finisar Zealots Leave the Island - Nyquist Capital</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-421</link>
		<dc:creator>Finisar Zealots Leave the Island - Nyquist Capital</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jun 2006 15:38:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-421</guid>
		<description>[...] It looks like the cleansing of the optical component sector is nearing completion. This is something I have been waiting for in expectation of a more rational investing environment in which I can apply my principles and philosophies. As readers know, I own no optical component stocks (yet). I strongly suggest you read my post in the previous link. Here&#8217;s an excerpt: I havenâ€™t done any financial, technical, or strategic work on Finisar Corp. (FNSR) but the emotions surrounding this stock reminds me of BKHM. This is the current favorite stock of the few remaining optical zealots who have yet to be beheaded. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] It looks like the cleansing of the optical component sector is nearing completion. This is something I have been waiting for in expectation of a more rational investing environment in which I can apply my principles and philosophies. As readers know, I own no optical component stocks (yet). I strongly suggest you read my post in the previous link. Here&#8217;s an excerpt: I havenâ€™t done any financial, technical, or strategic work on Finisar Corp. (FNSR) but the emotions surrounding this stock reminds me of BKHM. This is the current favorite stock of the few remaining optical zealots who have yet to be beheaded. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Texan Opto</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-420</link>
		<dc:creator>Texan Opto</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 May 2006 18:28:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-420</guid>
		<description>Bookham reminds me of a drug addict, always looking for that next fix.  The fundamental problem (my view) is that they are always late.  In a vertically integrated technology based business this is dangerous (at best).  They were late getting into low cost manufacturing (well after everyone else).  They talk about new products, but their revenue is still way too stuck on legacy products.  Their new products are not producing profit like their old products.

The NT deal referred to above was negotiated with a 30% price increase for the last time buy products.  An end to that is not a good thing as anything new they are able to sell with be at a much lower margin.  In addition, NT is actively working to at least alternate source them to mitigate their dependence on Bookham product.  I can only guess how much it upsets NT and CIsco management to hear Giorigo continually refer to them in his quarterly earnings reports.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bookham reminds me of a drug addict, always looking for that next fix.  The fundamental problem (my view) is that they are always late.  In a vertically integrated technology based business this is dangerous (at best).  They were late getting into low cost manufacturing (well after everyone else).  They talk about new products, but their revenue is still way too stuck on legacy products.  Their new products are not producing profit like their old products.</p>
<p>The NT deal referred to above was negotiated with a 30% price increase for the last time buy products.  An end to that is not a good thing as anything new they are able to sell with be at a much lower margin.  In addition, NT is actively working to at least alternate source them to mitigate their dependence on Bookham product.  I can only guess how much it upsets NT and CIsco management to hear Giorigo continually refer to them in his quarterly earnings reports.</p>
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		<title>By: Roger</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-419</link>
		<dc:creator>Roger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 May 2006 15:58:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-419</guid>
		<description>They just renewed there deal with Nortel the begining of this year.  I think you are referring to the last time buys from there old product line which doesn&#039;t amount to much anymore.  As for bilking investors out of their money, give me a break.  Very few saw that downturn coming in 2001, they did what they had to do to survive.  Now they&#039;ve set up a manufacturing facility in China with lots of extra space to grow to meet demand.  They&#039;ve eliminated 60 million in debt and have 60 million in cash.  The have 220 million in sales per year with revenue growth of 10% SEQUENTIALLY.  They are currently valued at 243 million.  This company is a steal at this price.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They just renewed there deal with Nortel the begining of this year.  I think you are referring to the last time buys from there old product line which doesn&#8217;t amount to much anymore.  As for bilking investors out of their money, give me a break.  Very few saw that downturn coming in 2001, they did what they had to do to survive.  Now they&#8217;ve set up a manufacturing facility in China with lots of extra space to grow to meet demand.  They&#8217;ve eliminated 60 million in debt and have 60 million in cash.  The have 220 million in sales per year with revenue growth of 10% SEQUENTIALLY.  They are currently valued at 243 million.  This company is a steal at this price.</p>
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		<title>By: ChipGeek</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-418</link>
		<dc:creator>ChipGeek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 May 2006 14:01:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-418</guid>
		<description>Bookham is a disaster.  Their deal with Nortel is coming to an end, and they have never, ever made money.  The only way they have stayed afloat is by bilking investors out of their money.  Stock goes to $2 before being delisted.  Run away, run away.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bookham is a disaster.  Their deal with Nortel is coming to an end, and they have never, ever made money.  The only way they have stayed afloat is by bilking investors out of their money.  Stock goes to $2 before being delisted.  Run away, run away.</p>
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		<title>By: Mediahound</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-417</link>
		<dc:creator>Mediahound</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 May 2006 04:07:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-417</guid>
		<description>My average cost on BKHM is about $6.75. I own a lot of it. The Easter earnings warning put me underwater, and it&#039;s been down ever since. Hold from here? Buy more? I&#039;m tempted. This company has lost 80% of its value since its IPO seven years ago. It&#039;s true that optics suppliers have been in a commodity pricing environment for years. Management has added very little value. But major telecoms will need BKHM&#039;s new products, and the cost-cutting is encouraging. Any surprise on either line -- top or bottom -- drives this stock up sharply. You have to own it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My average cost on BKHM is about $6.75. I own a lot of it. The Easter earnings warning put me underwater, and it&#8217;s been down ever since. Hold from here? Buy more? I&#8217;m tempted. This company has lost 80% of its value since its IPO seven years ago. It&#8217;s true that optics suppliers have been in a commodity pricing environment for years. Management has added very little value. But major telecoms will need BKHM&#8217;s new products, and the cost-cutting is encouraging. Any surprise on either line &#8212; top or bottom &#8212; drives this stock up sharply. You have to own it.</p>
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		<title>By: Roger</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-416</link>
		<dc:creator>Roger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 May 2006 21:26:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-416</guid>
		<description>I have been buying into the fiber optic space for about two years now.  Specifically Bookham.  In that time the revenue has consistently grown while costs have been reduced.  Long term debt was eliminated and new product lines were introduced.  Until the last quarter, margins had improved sequentially for the 8 quarters I followed the stock.  Even last quarters margins weren&#039;t bad compared to what they have been in the past.

It comes down to greed for bandwidth.  The internet is going to become a video medium, and as it does bandwidth requirements are going to be very large.  There is only one technology that can provide this bandwidth and that&#039;s fiber optics.  Bookham is the second largest fiber optic component supplier behind JDS Uniphase and can&#039;t keep up with demand now, in the earliest stages of the bandwidth runup.

After September 11 I told anyone who would listen to buy TIE but had to sell my position for the smallest of profits because I needed the money.  I learned a powerful lesson I won&#039;t repeat.  When I see a resource that is being consumed at an exponential rate, with no alternative technology to steal from its growth, I know its just a matter of time before the companies associated with the material start to make money hand over fist.  Fiber optic cables and components are just such a material.  I will buy every two weeks for as long as it&#039;s under $5 and thank God people are giving me the opportunity.

Quite simply, you have no idea what your talking about, thanks for the cheap stock.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have been buying into the fiber optic space for about two years now.  Specifically Bookham.  In that time the revenue has consistently grown while costs have been reduced.  Long term debt was eliminated and new product lines were introduced.  Until the last quarter, margins had improved sequentially for the 8 quarters I followed the stock.  Even last quarters margins weren&#8217;t bad compared to what they have been in the past.</p>
<p>It comes down to greed for bandwidth.  The internet is going to become a video medium, and as it does bandwidth requirements are going to be very large.  There is only one technology that can provide this bandwidth and that&#8217;s fiber optics.  Bookham is the second largest fiber optic component supplier behind JDS Uniphase and can&#8217;t keep up with demand now, in the earliest stages of the bandwidth runup.</p>
<p>After September 11 I told anyone who would listen to buy TIE but had to sell my position for the smallest of profits because I needed the money.  I learned a powerful lesson I won&#8217;t repeat.  When I see a resource that is being consumed at an exponential rate, with no alternative technology to steal from its growth, I know its just a matter of time before the companies associated with the material start to make money hand over fist.  Fiber optic cables and components are just such a material.  I will buy every two weeks for as long as it&#8217;s under $5 and thank God people are giving me the opportunity.</p>
<p>Quite simply, you have no idea what your talking about, thanks for the cheap stock.</p>
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		<title>By: james boyd</title>
		<link>http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-415</link>
		<dc:creator>james boyd</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 May 2006 15:44:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nyquistcapital.com/2006/05/22/why-i-dont-own-optical-component-stocks-yet/#comment-415</guid>
		<description>EXCELLENT</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>EXCELLENT</p>
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