NTT FTTH subscriber additions exceed DSL

There is some eye opening data from FTTH ground zero - Japan. A public NTT (NTT) presentation indicates they are turning on new FTTH (GE-PON to be precise) subscribers at a higher rate than DSL.
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Standard Definition TV = AM Radio

Mark Cuban has a loooong post (more like an opus) about why HDTV will kill off SDTV and what he feels the post-apocalypse broadcasting landscape will look like. It’s a long read but worth it.

There are some valid points about why HDTV will rapidly take over SDTV, and some really interesting observations on how this will depreciate the value of some networks and some content libraries. It’s unfortunate that Cuban misses the fact that it may be HD IPTV delivery itself that is the catalyst for more widespread consumer fiber deployment in the US.
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iSuppli Xbox360 BOM

iSuppli has a BOM analysis up on the 360, no doubt a result of AnandTech’s hard work. Looks like Microsoft (MSFT) is using the hardware as a loss leader, just as they did on the original Xbox. They estimate the premium Xbox (with hard drive, RF Controllers) has a material cost of $540. The box retails for $399. Their silicon cost estimate for the IBM uP at $106 (looks like a 13×13mm die) is, if anything, aggressive. Microsoft has declared war in the living room and is not afraid of a high body count.
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Infinera and China

Om Malik wrote an extensive article about Infinera three and a half years ago, and has a follow up comment indicating Del’Oro research shows Infinera is #1 in recent 10G optical switch deployments.

This is yet another example of technology research not keeping accurate score by focusing on the more traditional equipment vendors (Nortel, Alcatel, Lucent, Siemens, Fujitsu) and not counting the emerging Chinese vendors, particularly Huawei and ZTE. Huawei and ZTE both make wavelength switches and ship them in large amounts. Vitesse and Mindspeed supply the components at the heart of these switches and it is the Chinese vendors (and Nortel) who consume the most. Infinera’s not at the top of their list as a commercial partner though Mindspeed considers them a strong technical partner.

We don’t have a copy of the Del’Oro report, but it is an impossibility that ZTE and Huawei are not included in the top 5 vendors. We continue to see a lack of proper accounting for these vendors in carrier optical equipment and think the Nortels and Lucents of the world are radically underestimating the impact these companies will have at their core ILEC accounts. Just ask Marconi (uh… Ericsson) about Huawei and their experience bidding for the 21CN contract at BT.

Infinera is staffed by some very sharp ex-Lightera people, including a few of my ex-colleagues from Vitesse. They are certainly a company worth watching, particularly in an area that Om Malik fails to recognize- long reach, DWDM PON (warning, .pdf link), other than a throwaway reference to IPTV.

Xbox Hardware Pr0n

AnandTech has the first Xbox 360 hardware dissection. Everything one needs to get a good idea of what the bill of materials cost is and how the hardware cost relates to the system cost. What kind of gross margins will Microsoft see on launch day and what sort of cost reductions are lurking?

Anandtech also had an earlier article outlining exactly how to gratuitously void your warranty on your scarce and highly coveted Xbox 360 here.

AT&T Death Star Version 2.0

This may be a little inside baseball for some, but those of you who worked with or for AT&T all know that the globe logo is nothing but a thinly veiled reference to the Death Star twice destroyed in the infamous movie.

It appears that SBC has decided to not only take the name of their acquisition but also assume the classic logo as well. It’s been refreshed and lacks the sinister quality of the old logo…. perhaps the new AT&T will be even harder to destroy than the previous one?

Motorola and Broadlight

This news caught us by surprise. Motorola has invested in Broadlight, a supplier of silicon for GPON equipment. Our analysis of the GPON market (in conjunction with an extensive look at Passave) reached the following conclusions.

Tellabs - Broadlight
Optical Solutions (Now Calix) - In House
Alcatel - Freescale
Motorola (Quantum Bridge) - BPON in house, hiring an ASIC team for GPON
Hitachi - Unknown

Unclear what this means to the ASIC team in Andover, MA and in PA.

Regardless, we remain very negative on GPON as an opportunity for silicon PON MAC vendors and negative on GPON as a widely adopted technology over the next several years.

Did PMC-Sierra Overpay?

There is some discussion that PMC-Sierra (PMCS) may have overpaid KKR for the storage semiconductor portion of the Agilent business.

We think PMC-Sierra did indeed overpay. Here’s a generous financial picture of the storage division.
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